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14 Dec 2017

Gujarat exit polls predict a comfortable majority for BJP

After a high-voltage election campaigning, Gujarat has finally voted. The exit polls are out, and there is a clear winner.

Most predict a comfortable win for BJP. Polls project a win of about 110 seats on an average, which is just 5 short of the 115 seats BJP won in 2012.

This will be way above the 92-seat majority mark in the 182-member assembly.

In context

What do the Gujarat exit polls reveal?
What do the predictions reveal?


What do the predictions reveal?

Republic-Jan Ki Baat predicts a sweeping victory for BJP with 115 seats.

TIMES NOW-VMR expects BJP to get 109 seats and Congress 70 seats.

India Today-Axis says BJP will win 99-113 seats and Congress 68-84 seats.

Sahara Samay foresees a 110-120 seat-share for BJP and 65-75 for Congress.

ABP-CSDS-LOKNITI has predicted a massive BJP win with 117 seats and Congress 64 seats.

Chanakya predicts the highest seat-share for BJP

Chanakya, which got the 2014 prediction right, is projecting a two-third majority for BJP in Gujarat with 135 seats. It says Congress will be reduced to a dismal 47 seats!

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What do the predictions imply?

Though it's a home-run for BJP in Gujarat, the predictions are less than their targeted 150 seats. Further, despite Rahul Gandhi's temple-hopping and suave social-media presence, Congress failed to make an impact. The party's seat-share is expected to be, more or less, same as 2012.

Vote share

How are they expected to fare in terms of vote-share?

Vote-share refers to the percentage of total votes a party secures. It may not correspond with seat-share as it depends on a party's popularity in a region and demography.

Both C-Voter and India Today-Axis predict that BJP will capture about 47% votes and Congress 42-43% votes.

In 2012, BJP's vote share was 47% against Congress's 38%. Congress's vote-share is touted to increase.


Region-wise, how do Congress and BJP fare?

What are the region-wise predictions?

ABP predicts that in north Gujarat, BJP will win 32-38 seats and Congress 16-22 seats of 53 seats. This region's population comprises of farmers, OBCs and tribals. This being its main voter-base, Congress should ideally have done well.

TV9-C Voter predicts BJP will win 39 of 63 seats in central Gujarat. Congress will win 17 seats in Patel-bastion Saurashtra.

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