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05 Feb 2017

40% of America's voting population wants Trump impeached

Impeachment of Trump: Plausible or implausible?

According to a recent poll by Public Policy Polling (PPP), 40% of America's voting population supports the impeachment of recently-elected President, Donald Trump.

The percentage of people in favour of impeachment was only 35% last week.

The poll also shows that less than half of America's voting population, i.e. only 48%, as of today, opposes impeachment.

Is it possible for Trump to get impeached?

In context

Impeachment of Trump: Plausible or implausible?

What is the impeachment process in the US?

The impeachment process takes place in the United States Congress, comprising the House of Representatives and The Senate. The House of Representatives decides if there are any grounds to impeach the president, and, if such grounds are found, the Senate holds a formal impeachment trial.

Impeachment unlikely

It's unlikely that Trump will get impeached

Republicans hold a majority in both the House of Representatives and the Senate.

In the Senate, where 51 votes are needed to pass any legislation, the Republicans hold 54 seats compared to the Democrats' 44.

Considering the aforementioned advantage and the possibility of passing any law they want, it is highly unlikely that the Republicans will concede this advantage and break with Trump now.

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What are the possible grounds for impeachment in the US?

Impeachable offences, according to the US Constitution, include "Treason, Bribery, or other high Crimes and Misdemeanors". However, in 1970, then-Representative Gerald Ford defined such offences as "whatever a majority of the House of Representatives considers it to be at a given moment in history".

Loss of support?

Future events which could result in Trump losing support

According to Moody's Analytics, the macroeconomic consequences of Trump's economic policies could result in expansion of the federal deficit, loss of millions of jobs, and stifled economic growth.

Imposition of tariffs on Mexican and Chinese goods and the consequent price rise could anger Trump's blue collar voting base and Republican businessmen.

Coupled with the threat of actual war, Trump could, in future, lose support.

Is Trump already losing popular support?

According to Gallup, 51% of polled Americans already disapprove of Trump. It took Trump 8 days to get majority disapproval. For comparison, it took Obama 936 days, George W. Bush 1205 days, Bill Clinton 573 days, and Bush Sr. 1336 days to get majority disapproval.

Is there any hope for the anti-Trump lobby?

Scope for disruption

Is there any hope for the anti-Trump lobby?

In the event that Trump maintains Republican support, there is still some hope for the anti-Trump lobby during the 2018 mid-term elections.

The trend in American politics has seen the ruling party suffer major setbacks in mid-term elections.

If the Democrats manage to win enough seats in 2018, they could trump Trump by stripping funds from agencies assigned to carry out executive orders.

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