Apple's smartphone shipments to rise despite overall market decline
What's the story
Apple is poised to be the only major smartphone maker to increase shipments in 2026, according to a recent investor note by Jeff Pu and Henry Huang from GF Securities. The prediction comes despite a global market contraction of over 14%. The report predicts that Apple's market share will increase significantly as most of its competitors are expected to see a decline in their shipments.
Market resilience
Apple to gain market share at the expense of competitors
The report estimates that Apple will end 2026 as the only major smartphone maker to post an increase in shipments, with a projected 4% year-on-year (YoY) rise to 257 million units.
This would put Apple ahead of Samsung, which is expected to ship 241 million smartphones, virtually unchanged from its 2025 figures.
The report also predicts Apple's share of global smartphone shipments will rise to 24% in 2026, up from last year's figure of 20%.
Market contraction
Global smartphone market expected to contract in 2026
The report also predicts a 14.2% decline in total shipments for the global smartphone market, estimating 1.08 billion smartphones will be shipped in 2026.
Pu and Huang expect this period (2026-2027) to be one of the most difficult for the industry, mainly due to rising memory prices.
These costs have already forced OEMs to cut shipments and raise device prices.
Product hurdles
Analysts highlight production issues affecting iPhone models
The report notes that the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max have not been well-received. This is partly due to competition from the iPhone Duo and complaints about their weight.
The analysts also highlight production issues impacting both the iPhone Duo and the iPhone 18 Pro series, leading to reduced build plans for these models in 2026.
Stock outlook
Apple stock remains a hold, say analysts
Despite these challenges, the report has maintained a "Hold" rating on Apple stock with a price target of $369.
This comes as Apple shares closed at $343.46, up 0.43% for the day.
The company's strong market performance has made it the only major tech stock to end in green amid an ongoing sector-wide sell-off.