Bank of England likely to hold rates at 3.75%
The Bank of England is expected to keep its main interest rate at 3.75%.
This comes after inflation ticked up in December for the first time in months, thanks in part to pricier tobacco and flights.
Futures markets indicate nearly 2 cuts by the end of this year (2026).
Markets are now betting there's only a slim chance of a rate cut before spring—about 4% today and 28% by March.
April is looking more likely for any change.
Almost two quarter-point cuts by the end of this year (2026).
ING expects inflation to drop to 1.8% by April
Analysts at ING think inflation might fall to 1.8% by April as energy, food, and rent costs ease.
ING expects possible rate cuts in March or June if things go as expected.
EY's Matt Swannell called today's "hold" decision a "near certainty," but says an April cut is still on the table—even though wage growth could complicate things.
The next big update from the BoE lands at noon today.