India's retail inflation could hit 6.3% in November 2026, right near the RBI's comfort limit.
Rising food prices are the main culprit, and a report by Union Bank of India says this could push the RBI to raise interest rates when it meets in December.
Union Bank expects 25bps repo hike
Prices for essentials like cereals, pulses, and sugar jumped sharply in early November by 2.5%, 2.48%, and 5.02%, respectively, thanks to tricky weather and farming conditions.
With core inflation also rising last month, Union Bank of India expects the RBI to increase the benchmark repo rate by 25 basis points in December, and might go even further if prices keep climbing.