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Home / News / Technology News / India: Climate-based system to identify and predict dengue outbreaks
Technology

India: Climate-based system to identify and predict dengue outbreaks

India: Climate-based system to identify and predict dengue outbreaks
Written by Ramya Patelkhana
Sep 02, 2017, 10:37 pm 2 min read
India: Climate-based system to identify and predict dengue outbreaks

International researchers developed a climate-based system to predict the spread of dengue disease in various parts of India. University of Liverpool scientists in collaboration with Hyderabad's IICT and Guwahati's NIPER identified climatic risks for dengue outbreaks in different Indian climatic-zones across Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Gujarat, and Kerala. The system can not only identify but also take preventive measures against the deadly disease. Know more!

Study
Climatic factors play significant role in dengue's incubation period

Researchers studied the changes in the dengue virus's "extrinsic incubation period (EIP)" by using daily and monthly mean temperatures in different climatic-zones. EIP is the incubation time taken by the virus inside a mosquito. It is during this period that the virus escapes the mosquito's gut and reaches its salivary glands. The mosquito then becomes infectious, capable of transmitting dengue to human hosts.

Temperatures, EIPs
Higher temperatures cause shorter EIPs, higher dengue transmission

At lower temperatures (17-18 degrees Celsius), dengue virus takes longer to incubate, resulting in longer EIPs and lesser disease transmission and vice-versa. If EIP decreases by five days, the dengue transmission rate increases three-fold; if the temperature rises from 17 to 30 degrees Celsius, the transmission increases four times. However, if the temperature is above 35 degree Celsius, it becomes detrimental to mosquitoes' survival.

Climatic Factors
Assessing dengue burden: Considering dynamic EIPs of regions is important

Researchers observed that in most regions rainfall and dengue outbreaks had a strong correlation; more rains lead to increased mosquito-breeding grounds. Their study found Kerala, with warm temperatures ranging 23.5-30 degrees Celsius and wet climate, has shorter EIPs (9-14 days) and records a higher number of dengue cases. EIP is the shortest during the monsoon in most states leading to enhanced dengue risk.

Details
Still in initial stages of implementing disease control methods: Rao

The study found temperature changes affect dengue virus's EIP suggesting future climatic changes would adversely affect India's burden of dengue and other vector-borne diseases. Though methods to control such diseases are being used, they are still in the initial stages in India, said IICT's Rao. He added several factors, including "population density and migration" must be taken into account for future disease-assessment studies.

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Ramya Patelkhana
Ramya Patelkhana
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Ramya Patelkhana is a senior editor at NewsBytes. She has nearly seven years of experience in digital journalism and has previously worked with India News and Authint Media. She has a Bachelor's degree in Journalism and Mass Communication from the IK Gujral Punjab Technical University, Kapurthala, and an advanced diploma in Media Studies from IPW, New Delhi.
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