Apple's iPhone shipments expected to fall 2.1% in 2026
What's the story
Apple is likely to witness a decline in its smartphone shipments by some 2.1% in 2026, according to a report by Counterpoint Research. However, the tech giant is expected to make a comeback with an estimated growth of around 2.8% in 2027. The anticipated dip in 2026 can be attributed to possible higher launch pricing of the iPhone 18 series and changes in the timing of Pro and base-model introductions across product cycles.
Market dynamics
Samsung's anticipated growth amidst market decline
In stark contrast to Apple, Samsung's smartphone shipments are expected to grow by some 0.8% in 2026. This growth is anticipated despite a wider market decline.
Samsung's success can be attributed to its broad geographic presence, deep supply chain, and reliable access to memory and semiconductor supplies.
Market forecast
Global smartphone market expected to dip by 14.3%
The global smartphone market is expected to witness a major decline of some 14.3% year-on-year (YoY) in 2026.
This is due to higher component costs, reduced availability of lower-priced devices, and weaker consumer affordability affecting demand.
The downturn is likely to reshape competition, with Samsung expected to become the leading global smartphone player by 2026.
Segment performance
Premium segment likely to continue strong performance
The premium segment is likely to continue its strong performance, while mass-market segments bear the brunt of the market retreat.
Mobile memory remains the most significant constraint, with higher chipset prices adding pressure across premium, mid-range and legacy product platforms.
The impact on shipments will be greatest at lower price points where component costs account for a larger share of the bill of materials.
Shipment pressure
Chinese manufacturers to face greater shipment pressure
Leading Chinese smartphone manufacturers are expected to face much greater shipment pressure due to their exposure to price-sensitive consumers and mid-range-focused device portfolios.
Shipments across several major Chinese OEMs are forecast to decline by some 15% to 34% in 2026.
Manufacturers are likely to respond by reducing memory configurations, using older platforms, raising prices or discontinuing products that can no longer meet profitability targets.
Recovery forecast
Market recovery expected in 2028
A stronger market recovery is expected in 2028, with global smartphone shipments likely to grow by some 4.8%.
This growth will be driven by improved component availability and stabilization of retail pricing.
The recovery is likely to favor the largest manufacturers who are better positioned to secure components, manage financing, and maintain distribution through the downturn.