Goldman, Morgan Stanley lower oil price forecasts after U.S.-Iran deal
Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley just lowered their oil price forecasts for the final quarter of this year, thanks to a new U.S.-Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
This move should speed up Persian Gulf oil exports.
Now, Goldman expects Brent crude at $80 a barrel (down from $90 a barrel), while Morgan Stanley lowered its third-quarter estimate from $100 to $90 and sees the final three months at $80.
Banks disagree on recovery pace
Goldman thinks export levels could bounce back by the end of July, but Morgan Stanley sees a slower path, maybe one-half restored by September, 80% by December, with full recovery stretching into early 2027.
There are still hurdles like clearing tanks and getting shipowners on board.
The two countries are expected to meet in Switzerland on Friday to formally sign the agreement, so traders are watching closely for updates.