Goldman Sachs predicts gold at $5,400 by 2026 end
What's the story
Goldman Sachs has raised its end-2026 gold price forecast to $5,400 per ounce from the previous estimate of $4,900/oz. The investment bank cites strong demand from private investors and emerging market central banks diversifying their holdings as key factors behind this revision. The move comes amid a strong rally for gold, which has risen over 11% so far in 2026 after an impressive 64% surge last year.
Market analysis
Goldman Sachs's rationale for revised gold price forecast
Goldman Sachs's revised forecast takes into account the potential impact of private-sector diversification buyers on global policy risks. The investment bank said, "We assume private sector diversification buyers, whose purchases hedge global policy risks and have driven the upside surprise to our price forecast, don't liquidate their gold holdings in 2026." This assumption effectively raises the starting point of their price forecast.
Future projections
Goldman Sachs's expectations for central bank buying
Goldman Sachs expects Western ETF holdings to increase as the US Federal Reserve is likely to cut the funds rate by 50 basis points in 2026. The investment bank also predicts that central bank buying will average 60 tons in 2026, with emerging market central banks likely continuing their diversification into gold. These factors could further drive up demand and prices for the precious metal.