India on track to become 'upper-middle-income' country by 2030
What's the story
India is on track to transition from a 'lower-middle-income' to an 'upper-middle-income' country by 2030, according to a recent report by SBI Research. The change is expected as the country's per capita Gross National Income (GNI) is projected to hit $4,000 in four years. This would put India in the same league as China and Indonesia under current classifications.
Growth pattern
India's economic growth trajectory
The report highlights India's impressive economic growth over the years. It took the nation 60 years to transition from a low-income to a lower-middle-income country in 2007, with its per capita GNI rising from $90 in 1962 to $910 by then. The country also achieved the $1 trillion mark in 60 years since independence and hit the $2 trillion milestone in another seven years (2014).
Income milestones
Per capita income milestones
The report further details India's journey through various economic milestones. The country reached a per capita income of $1,000 in 62 years since independence (2009) and hit the $2,000 mark in another 10 years (2019). It is expected to reach a per capita income of $3,000 by 2026 and touch the $4,000 mark by 2030. This upward trajectory is key to India's transition into an upper-middle-income country.
Global comparison
Economic growth compared to other countries
The SBI report also compares India's economic growth with other countries. It cites Guyana as the best performer among 48 low- and middle-income countries that transitioned to higher income categories between 1990 and 2024. Guyana went from a low-income country in 1990 to a high-income one by 2024, with its per capita GNI increasing more than 51 times during this period.
Future outlook
Growth journey and future projections
The report also looks at India's growth journey over the last decade, noting that its percentile rank in the cross-country distribution of average real GDP growth has improved from the 92nd to 95th percentile. This indicates a rightward shift in its relative position, placing India deeper into the upper tail of global growth distribution. The report also assesses India's potential to become a high-income country by 2047 under its long-term Viksit Bharat vision.