Oil supply is finally outpacing demand again, says the International Energy Agency (IEA).
Thanks to Gulf countries bouncing back after the recent conflict, there's now a global surplus, about 2 million extra barrels a day in October 2026.
Oil prices have dropped to around $95 a barrel, especially after Donald Trump said the war is "effectively over," bringing some relief to markets.
IEA sees surplus through 2026
The IEA expects this surplus to stick around through the end of 2026, with supply averaging 105 million barrels per day, still more than what people are using.
OPEC+ countries have nearly returned to their usual output levels, and emergency reserves aren't under as much pressure now.
While demand isn't booming yet, it's expected to pick up next year, with growth mostly in petrochemical feed stocks as the market for vehicle fuel is hit by 'high prices, electrification, and fuel efficiency.'