Bihar exit polls: How accurate were 2015, 2020 predictions
What's the story
Voting for the second phase of the Bihar Assembly Elections is underway and will end at 6:00pm. Exit poll results are expected to be released by various agencies by 6:30pm. These surveys are conducted to gage voter sentiment and predict early outcomes of the elections. However, exit polls have a history of being inaccurate, and actual results will only be declared after counting on November 14.
Election details
Bihar Assembly elections 2025
The Bihar Assembly has 243 seats, and polling is being held in two phases on November 6 and November 11. Exit poll results will be available on television news channels, pollster websites, and their social media handles. In previous elections, exit polls have often been inaccurate. In the 2020 elections, they predicted a narrow win for the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan with 125 seats, but the NDA won with 125 seats against the Mahagathbandhan's 110 seats.
Poll performance
Exit polls in the 2020 Bihar elections
In 2020, the exit polls underestimated the NDA's performance by 17 seats and overestimated the Mahagathbandhan's by 15 seats. The closest predictions were made by Patriotic Voter, P-Marq, and ABP News-CVoter—all projecting an NDA majority. However, News18-Today's Chanakya was the farthest off with its prediction of 55 seats for the NDA and a whopping 180 for Mahagathbandhan.
Historical predictions
Exit polls in the 2015 Bihar elections
In the 2015 elections, six exit polls had predicted a close race, giving the Mahagathbandhan 123 seats on average and the NDA 114 seats. However, they were way off, as the Mahagathbandhan won comfortably with 178 seats, while the NDA ended up with just 58 seats. The CNN IBN-Axis poll was closest to predicting this outcome, forecasting a win for Mahagathbandhan with a tally of 176 seats.