Nuclear conflict, AI misuse might kill humanity by 2100: Lancet
What's the story
A new global risk assessment from The Lancet has warned that humans could face extinction by 2100 due to the malicious use of artificial intelligence (AI) or nuclear conflict. The study ranks these two threats as the top concerns for human health over the next 75 years. Other major risks include cuts in aid spending by wealthy nations, climate change, and childhood malnutrition.
Global response
All threats interconnected, need to be addressed together
The experts behind The Lancet Commission on 21st Century Global Threats to Health emphasized that all these threats are interconnected and need to be addressed together.
However, they also stressed that there is "a realistic route to act" on each of them.
"Decisions made by leaders today will shape the health and wellbeing of the next generation," said Professor Christopher Murray, commission co-chair and the director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington.
Extinction risk
Malicious AI use, nuclear conflict top extinction risks
The report highlights the potential extinction risks posed by malicious use of AI, including bioweapons, and nuclear conflict.
Though their likelihood is low, these threats could end humanity if a nuclear conflict injects enough particles into the upper atmosphere to block sunlight and trigger famine or through AI-created biological weapons.
An accompanying Lancet editorial warned that "the scale of harm, should they be realized, would inflict an apocalypse on humanity."
Additional risks
Other major catastrophic threats listed in report
The report also lists other major catastrophic threats that could cause over one billion cumulative disability-adjusted life years (Dalys).
These include air pollution, antimicrobial resistance, childhood malnutrition, climate breakdown, conventional conflict, declining overseas aid, high alcohol use and high blood pressure.
Income inequality, low educational attainment, naturally occurring pandemics, obesity, poor mental health, smoking, and unhealthy aging are also on the list of potential risks.
Solutions available
Threats had to have potential solutions to be included
To be included in this list, threats not only had to potentially cause a high number of lost healthy years but also have potential solutions.
Ibrahim Abubakar, a commission member and professor of infectious disease epidemiology at UCL, said their goal was to inform policymakers about potential threats and the difference they could make by acting on them.
Climate impact
Health loss driven by different factors in different regions
The report also notes that action to limit global heating to about 1.8 degree Celsius instead of letting it reach 4.4 degree Celsius could save up to 1.89 billion healthy years from being lost.
In high-income regions, non-communicable diseases such as obesity and poor mental health were the main threats, while in low-income regions health loss was driven by factors like low educational attainment.