First Israeli polls since Gaza war today; What's at stake
What's the story
Israel is heading to the polls to elect its 26th Knesset, the first since the Hamas-led October 7, 2023, attack, successive multi-front wars, deepening political polarization and growing international isolation. Around 7.3 million citizens eligible to vote will decide the fate of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's political career and shape Israel's future on key issues like national security, regional conflicts, and relations with the United States. Voters will elect 120 members of the Knesset, Israel's parliament.
Election dynamics
Election outcome and possible scenarios
The final tally is expected by October 30, and the election results are expected on November 4.
Final polls suggest a tight race between Netanyahu's bloc of right-wing and ultra-Orthodox parties and the Yashar coalition, headed by former Israeli military chief Gadi Eisenkot.
While the opposition appears to have more paths to a potential parliamentary majority, internal conflicts among its leaders, notably over cooperation with Arab parties, may prevent them from turning an electoral advantage into a governing coalition.
System
To enter Knesset, parties must get 3.25% of valid votes
Israel uses a proportional representation system to elect its parliament so governments have always been coalitions of multiple parties.
Voters select a party list, not individual candidates, with 120 Knesset seats distributed according to votes received. For example, a party winning 30% of votes takes roughly 30% of seats.
A parliamentary majority requires 61 seats and no party has ever won that outright.
If no bloc forms majority, Israel could either have a minority government or go for another election.
President
Picked candidate will have 28 days to form coalition
Once the results are determined, President Isaac Herzog will speak with the elected parties' leaders before appointing the member who he believes has the best chance of forming the government.
That candidate will have 28 days to build a coalition, with a potential 14-day extension. If that fails, a second leader may be granted 28 days, and if that fails, a majority of 61 MKs can petition the president to allocate the task to a specific lawmaker within 21-day period.
Election issues
Election amid security concerns and rising living costs
The elections are being held against the backdrop of security concerns and high living costs, with 21% of Israelis ranking the economy and the cost of living as their top priority.
Netanyahu has campaigned on security, promising to keep Israel militarily dominant, as critics blame him for allowing Hamas to rise before the attacks and for security lapses that led to them.
Leadership impact
Implications for Netanyahu
"This is the first chance Israelis will have to vote in what is becoming a referendum on what Netanyahu has come to represent following October 7," Dahlia Sheindlin, a political analyst, told NBC News.
"For his supporters, he is the strong prime minister who fought back...," she adds.
"And to his detractors or critics...he's the prime minister who led to the failures of the government to detect or prevent Oct. 7 and has refused to take accountability for it."
Regional implications
Impact on Palestine and Iran
Beyond that, these polls could also determine his personal life.
Netanyahu is facing criminal cases of fraud, breach of trust, and bribery. If he loses, he can be tried and imprisoned if convicted.
The election results will also impact Israel's stance on Palestine and Iran.
CNN notes that if Netanyahu returns to power with his current allies, they would further harden their stance against Palestine, including dismantling the Palestinian Authority and going to war in the West Bank.
Iran
PM's goal on Iran
On Iran, Netanyahu has emphasized that toppling the regime was Israel's "primary objective."
"We must complete the elimination of the Iranian regime — that is the primary objective," Netanyahu said.
On Gaza, Eisenkot does not differ hugely from Netanyahu, recently pledging to end Hamas rule in the territory within 18 months.
But on Iran, however, Eisenkot believes regime change was "not an achievable goal," and he has called for a balance of military strikes and diplomacy to end the war.