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Nobel Institute suspects espionage after Machado Peace Prize leak
Maria Corina Machado's odds spiked before the announcement

Nobel Institute suspects espionage after Machado Peace Prize leak

Oct 12, 2025
01:05 pm

What's the story

The Nobel Institute has raised concerns of possible espionage after a sudden surge in betting odds for Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado. The spike was observed on Polymarket, an online prediction market, just hours before the official announcement of her winning the Nobel Peace Prize. Her odds shot up from 3.75% to over 73% shortly after midnight local time on Friday, AFP reported.

Espionage theory

Espionage 'highly likely': Nobel Institute director

Kristian Berg Harpviken, the director of the Nobel Institute and secretary of the Nobel Committee, said that espionage is "highly likely." He said that while espionage could create an illusion of an insider leak, such deliberate leaks are unlikely. Harpviken said, "It's too certain to say for sure, but it's no secret that the Nobel Institute is subject to espionage."

Leak denial

No internal breach, says committee chairman

However, Jorgen Watne Frydnes, the chairman of the Nobel Committee, has dismissed any possibility of an internal breach. He told Norway's NTB news agency that he doesn't believe there have ever been leaks in the history of the prize. The selection process for the Nobel Peace Prize is one of the most closely guarded secrets globally, with only a few people aware of the final decision before it is announced.

Award impact

Machado awarded for promoting democratic rights in Venezuela

Machado was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for her "tireless work promoting democratic rights for the people of Venezuela and for her struggle to achieve a just and peaceful transition from dictatorship to democracy." The award has sparked global political reactions. US President Donald Trump, who had long campaigned for the Nobel Peace Prize, slammed the decision as a case of "politics over peace."