Barclays sees RBI cutting repo rate to 5.25% in October
Barclays thinks the Reserve Bank of India will lower its repo rate by 0.25% to 5.25% this October—after already cutting it three times since February.
This move is mainly because inflation is expected to drop to 3.1% for FY26, while the economy keeps growing steadily at 6.5%.
Rupee still undervalued, say experts
Even though the RBI held rates steady in August, another cut could be on the way as price pressures ease.
Barclays's Mitul Kotecha points out that the rupee is still undervalued compared to other Asian currencies, despite trade pressures and money flowing out of India.
DBS Bank's Ashhish Vaidya sees support for the rupee around 87.80-87.90 but warns it could weaken if global trends shift.
RBI's balancing act
Experts agree India's economic fundamentals are strong—even if the rupee bounces around a bit in the short term.
As inflation stays low and growth holds up, RBI is focused on keeping things balanced: supporting growth while keeping prices in check with careful policy moves.