Boeing forecasts the need for 44,000 new jets by 2044
What's the story
Boeing has predicted a massive surge in global air travel demand, expecting it to grow by over 40% by 2030.
The forecast, released ahead of the Paris Airshow, projects a need for around 43,600 new jetliners through to 2044.
This is in line with last year's prediction of 43,975 deliveries through to 2043.
Meanwhile, European competitor Airbus has raised its 20-year commercial aircraft demand forecast by 2% to 43,420 jets, expressing confidence that the industry will withstand ongoing trade tensions.
Aircraft categories
Breakdown of delivery projection
Boeing's delivery projection is broken down into different categories of aircraft. It includes nearly 33,300 single-aisle airliners such as the 737 MAX.
Just over 7,800 widebody jets, 955 factory-built freighters, and 1,545 regional jets also make up the company's future delivery plans.
Single-aisle jets, including the 737 MAX and competitor Airbus' A320neo family, currently account for about four out of every five deliveries in the market.
Forecast adjustments
Boeing lowers passenger traffic growth forecast
Despite the optimistic delivery projection, Boeing has lowered its 20-year forecast for passenger traffic growth from 4.7% to 4.2%.
The company also revised down its global economic growth forecast from 2.6% to 2.3%, cargo traffic growth from 4.1% to 3.7%, and fleet growth from 3.2% to a slightly lower 3.1%.
However, Boeing Vice President of Commercial Marketing Darren Hulst said trade volatility isn't likely to change long-term demand significantly.
Demand recovery
Air travel demand has rebounded post-COVID-19
Post-COVID-19, air travel demand has seen a strong recovery. However, airplane production is still lagging behind pre-pandemic levels, creating a shortfall of 1,500 to 2,000 airliners.
Both Airbus and Boeing have struggled to ramp up aircraft production to their former glory.
Boeing has been facing production safety issues after a mid-air panel blowout on an almost new Alaska Airlines 737 MAX in 2024.
Crisis management
Production safety issues and crash investigation
In response to the production safety issues, the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) limited 737 production to 38 aircraft a month.
Despite significant improvements in production quality recently, a crash involving an Air India Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner has put Boeing back in crisis mode.
The company's CEO, Kelly Ortberg, canceled his Paris Airshow plans to focus on the crash investigation.
Growth projection
Demand for new aircraft driven by growth
Boeing expects that over the next two decades, around 51% of demand for new aircraft will be driven by growth rather than replacing older planes.
China and South/Southeast Asia (including India) are expected to account for half of this additional capacity.
North America and Eurasia will account for more than half of projected deliveries to replace older aircraft.