India's retail market to hit $1T by 2030
What's the story
India's retail market is set to witness a massive transformation, with a projected growth to $1 trillion by 2030. The anticipated growth is fueled by rising disposable incomes, rapid digital adoption, and an expanding aspirational class. The forecast comes from a recent report by venture capital firm Fireside Ventures, which highlights the structural changes in India's shopping landscape.
Market shift
Retail channels witnessing significant reconfiguration
Fireside Ventures's report highlights a major shift in India's retail channels. General trade, which accounted for over 90% of the market in 2014, is expected to decline to around 70% by 2030. This is as modern trade, e-commerce, quick commerce and direct-to-consumer (D2C) brands gain prominence. D2C platforms and quick commerce alone could account for as much as 5% of the market within this decade.
Retail growth
Branded retail expected to double in size
As consumers embrace new formats and digital-first habits, branded retail is expected to double in size and reach nearly $730 billion. This would account for almost half of India's total retail market. The report notes that digital-native brands are growing two to three times faster than traditional players, thanks to data-led product innovation, agile distribution strategies, and sharper customer engagement techniques.
Digital penetration
India to have 1.1 billion internet users by 2030
The report also highlights the emergence of new consumer cohorts in India. By 2030, the country is expected to have 1.1 billion internet users and over 400 million online shoppers. This creates what Fireside Ventures calls "the flattest consumption opportunity" India has ever seen, making it a prime market for investors looking at the Indian consumer space.