India's GDP growth to slow to 6.3% in FY26: SBI
India's GDP is set to slow down a bit next year—SBI Research expects 6.3% growth for FY2025-26.
The RBI's 6.5% forecast is for FY2024-25, not FY2025-26.
Growth could start strong at around 6.8-7% in the first quarter of FY2024-25, but may dip to 6.1% by year-end.
Private investment plans for FY26 much lower than last year
A survey of over 2,000 businesses found that private investment plans for FY26 are much lower than last year, with US tariffs contributing to challenges for export sectors like textiles and gems.
On the bright side, government spending is still providing steady support for the economy.
Bank credit growth has cooled to 10%
Bank credit growth has cooled to 10% by July 2025 (down from nearly 14%), even as deposits ticked up a bit.
Most sectors saw less borrowing except small and medium enterprises (SMEs), which actually grew by almost 22%.
Export-focused industries—from chemicals to agriculture—are bracing for more pressure as US tariffs start to bite in the coming quarters.