India's inflation to fall below 1% in October
India's retail inflation is expected to fall below 1% in October 2025, mainly because of the recent GST rate cut that kicked in on September 22.
CPI data coming out in November could show a sharp drop from September's 1.5%, with some economists, like Radhika Rao from DBS Bank, predicting it might even dip as low as 0.2%.
RBI may cut policy rates in upcoming meeting
The Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee, led by Governor Sanjay Malhotra, will look at these numbers in their next meeting and might consider cutting policy rates or lowering FY2026 inflation forecast from 2.6% to around 2.4%.
While prices could edge up again later due to things like weather surprises, the overall outlook for inflation is still looking positive—especially with food prices declining and GST changes helping out.