Oil market unmoved by Middle East conflict
Even after the recent Israel-Iran conflict, oil prices bounced back fast and are holding steady.
According to S&P Global, markets seem more focused on supply and demand than on political drama right now.
For 2025, oil demand is set to grow by 870,000 barrels a day—one of the slowest increases in years.
Prices expected to stay in $50-60 range
By late 2025, there could be over a million extra barrels of oil produced each day compared to what's needed.
That surplus is expected to keep Brent crude prices in the $50-$60 range as demand stays weak and supply keeps rising.
US oil production predicted to drop
US oil production is predicted to drop for the first time in nearly a decade—down by about 600,000 barrels daily from mid-2025 through 2026.
Meanwhile, Middle Eastern countries like Saudi Arabia are actually shipping out more oil. The region also has a big backup supply ready if needed (and Iran could add even more if sanctions ease).
Bottom line: it's market basics—not global tensions—that are steering oil prices right now.