Reliance Industries hits strongest rally since 2020, shares jump 26%
What's the story
Reliance Industries, India's most valuable company by market capitalization, is experiencing its strongest bull run since 2020. Its shares have surged over 26% this year, boosting its market value by ₹4.4 lakh crore. On Friday, the stock touched a fresh 52-week high of ₹1,557.95 on the BSE. The rally is supported by factors such as rising refining margins and hikes in telecom tariffs.
Business expansion
Jio IPO and revenue growth
Jefferies has raised its target enterprise value for Reliance Jio to a staggering $180 billion. The company is expected to achieve an 18%/21% CAGR in revenues/EBITDA over FY26-28. This growth will be driven by rising mobile tariffs, strong home broadband business growth (driven by fixed wireless access), enterprise business scale-up, and monetization of its tech stack.
Market expectations
Telecom business to drive future growth
Reliance's telecom business is expected to be a major growth driver. Market expert Sudip Bandyopadhyay expects the next quarter's results will be "very positive" as ARPU increases fully flow through. He also anticipates another ARPU hike before fiscal year-end, which could trigger fresh momentum. Reliance has also announced plans for value unlocking through listing its telecom business in H1 2026, further boosting market expectations.
Business diversification
Strong retail momentum and new energy initiatives
ICICI Securities has upgraded Reliance to BUY with a target price of ₹1,735. The upgrade is driven by strong retail momentum, visible progress in new energy initiatives, and the rising importance of its media segment. The brokerage projects a consolidated EPS CAGR of 15% over FY26-28, backed by Reliance's diversified growth engines and improved visibility on returns.
Market recovery
Oil-to-chemicals business staging a comeback
Reliance's oil-to-chemicals (O2C) business is making a strong comeback. Asia refining margins have improved on healthy fundamentals, refinery maintenance, seasonal swings, and geopolitical developments. UBS expects O2C EBITDA to rise from ₹295 billion in H1 to ₹340 billion in H2 FY26 and further to ₹648 billion in FY27. The firm maintains a Buy rating with a target price of ₹1,820 for Reliance shares.