Trump's new visa policy could hit India's real estate market
What's the story
US President Donald Trump has introduced a new visa policy that could impact India's real estate market. The policy imposes a hefty $100,000 annual fee on most H-1B visa petitions from September 21, 2025. This move is expected to have significant effects primarily on the residential property market in Indian metro cities, while the commercial market might experience different dynamics, particularly through Global Capability Centres (GCCs).
Market impact
Major impact on Indian cities
With over 71% of H-1B approvals in FY2024 going to Indian nationals, experts predict the new fee will discourage onsite deployments and reduce overseas hiring. This could have a major impact on remittance-backed home buying and long-term housing decisions among tech professionals. Real estate experts warn cities like Bengaluru, Hyderabad, Pune, and Gurugram could see a downturn due to this policy change.
Housing forecast
Three key risks to the real estate market
Experts have identified three major risks to the real estate market: a decline in premium housing demand, delayed purchase decisions due to postponed US relocations, and slower absorption of mid-to-high-end projects aimed at tech buyers. A Delhi NCR-based real estate consultant said the sudden cost spike is likely to dampen sentiment among overseas-bound families who were relying on US assignments for property investments back home.
Investment shift
Remittances driving housing demand
Pareekh Jain, CEO of Pareekh Consulting, said remittances are a major driver of housing demand in India. He predicted that while primary housing demand may rise as people return from the US or move to metros, investment demand in real estate will weaken due to lower remittances and job insecurity. Vishal Raheja, Founder & MD of InvestoXpert, also said the proposed H-1B visa fee could impact Indian housing demand.
Commercial boost
Potential boost for commercial real estate
Despite challenges in the residential sector, there could be a silver lining for commercial real estate. The growth of Global Capability Centres (GCCs) may accelerate as American companies look to restructure their staffing strategies. Indian cities could see an increase in office space leasing and infrastructure development due to this shift. According to CBRE data, GCCs now account for 35-40% of office space absorption in metros like Bengaluru, Hyderabad, and Pune.
Uncertainty
Shift in global investment patterns
As developers, buyers, and investors adjust to these changes, India's real estate market is likely to witness a shift toward mid-segment housing and rental ecosystems. Akash Puri from India Sotheby's International Realty said higher H-1B costs could push top talent to explore global cities for luxury real estate. He added that this would create fresh demand in markets offering stability and lifestyle.