Bihar: Survey shows NDA advantage, but Mahagathbandhan still holding ground
What's the story
The upcoming Bihar Assembly elections are likely to be shaped by traditional factors such as caste dynamics and welfare politics, a new survey has revealed. The Ascendia "Battle of Bihar 2025" survey indicates a continuation of the political divide between the Mahagathbandhan (MGB) led by Tejashwi Yadav and the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) headed by Nitish Kumar. Despite Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraj Party (JSP) emerging as a third force, its impact is more pronounced in South Bihar than in North Bihar.
Vote dynamics
Muslim community's support crucial for MGB
The Muslim community, which makes up 17% of Bihar's population, has been a traditional supporter of the MGB. Their support increased from 75% in 2020 to 83% in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections as a section of the community realized that the Asaduddin Owaisi-led AIMIM split votes and helped the BJP. However, dissatisfaction with representation on campaigns like Rahul Gandhi's and Tejashwi's "Voter Adhikar Yatra" could hurt MGB's prospects in Seemanchal unless addressed quickly, according to the survey.
Caste politics
Dalit and EBCs's sentiments
The Dalit community, which makes up around 20% of Bihar's population, is also divided. The NDA has an edge among the Paswan and Musahar sub-castes, but the Chamar sub-caste leans toward MGB due to anti-Paswan sentiments. The Hindu Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs), making up 26% of the population, have traditionally supported the NDA and are likely to continue doing so unless MGB increases representation significantly.
Vote distribution
OBCs's traditional loyalties and potential shifts
Meanwhile, other Backward Classes voters, who make up 25% of Bihar's population, are divided between Yadavs supporting RJD and non-Yadav OBCs behind the NDA. The Koeri-Kurmi (Kushwaha) community has traditionally supported the NDA, but the survey cautions that the community may gravitate toward the MGB as it did in the Lok Sabha elections and Uttar Pradesh. In the 2020 polls, the NDA led in seven out of nine administrative zones with a net lead of 15 seats over MGB.