AI is now better at predicting the future than humans
ManticAI, a UK-based startup co-founded by a former Google DeepMind researcher, just landed 8th place in the Metaculus Cup—a worldwide contest where entrants predicted outcomes for 60 big events this summer.
Their AI outperformed many human participants, including some professionals, showing how fast machine forecasting is catching up.
ManticAI uses multiple AIs to tackle each problem
Instead of relying on just one system, ManticAI splits each problem into tasks for different AIs from OpenAI, Google, and DeepSeek.
They mix real-time news analysis, historical research, and scenario simulations—then keep updating their predictions.
Co-founder Toby Shevlane shared that their AI often breaks away from groupthink, offering fresh takes compared to most humans.
Experts believe AI could surpass humans in the next few years
Right now, people still have the edge in accuracy—but experts think AI could match or beat us by 2029.
While AIs sometimes struggle to keep all related predictions logically connected, they're great at constant self-checking and improvement.
The sweet spot? Combining human intuition with smart AI analysis for faster and sharper forecasts.