'City-killer' asteroid—2024 YR4—now has higher chance of hitting Earth: NASA
What's the story
NASA has flagged a major increase in the probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting Earth in 2032. The space agency had first estimated a 1.3% chance of impact when the asteroid was discovered just after Christmas last year. But recent data from NASA's Center for Near Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) now puts the number at a heightened 3.1%. The rapid escalation has alarmed astronomers worldwide as it could cause "localized damage."
Risk assessment
Uncommon rise in impact probability
The impact probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 has been on a steady rise since its discovery. On February 7, NASA revised the likelihood to 2.3%, which later rose to 2.6% and now sits at an unprecedented 3.1%. Davide Farnocchia, a navigation engineer at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, told ABC News that while the overall probability remains low, anything over 2% is considered "uncommon" in their field of study.
Monitoring measures
Possible impact locations of 2024 YR4
Asteroid 2024 YR4, which is estimated to be between 130 and 300 feet wide, has caught NASA's attention owing to its size and potential impact. The space agency is keeping a close watch on the asteroid's orbit in the hope that further observations will eventually rule out any "impact hazard." The International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) has identified possible impact locations such as the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, Arabian Sea and South Asia.
Impact simulation
Asteroid 2024 YR4's potential impact and response
The potential impact of asteroid 2024 YR4 has been visualized in a chilling animation created by 3D artist Alvaro Gracia Montoya. The simulation depicts a massive space rock devastating a cityscape, emphasizing the possible consequences of such an event. NASA's latest calculations indicate a potential Earth impact date of December 22, 2032, with odds of one in 32. There is also a small 0.3% chance that YR4 could hit the Moon instead of Earth.
Twitter Post
Mumbai and Kolkata face highest risk
NEW: NASA has increased the chance a major asteroid smashes into Earth in 2032, now giving it a 3.1% chance, up from 2.6% last week.
— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) February 18, 2025
NASA says the odds the asteroid hits Earth is 1 in 32. It is big enough to wipe out an entire city.
The large cities with the highest risk are… pic.twitter.com/WHVsiGsieT