$170M Polymarket bets placed hours before US-Iran ceasefire
What's the story
Hours before United States President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire between the US and Iran, over $170 million was bet on the event on the prediction market platform Polymarket. The platform allows users to bet between $0 and $1 on events' probabilities. On April 7, at least 50 wallets made significant "Yes" bets on a potential US-Iran ceasefire, many for the first time.
Betting surge
Betting activity raises eyebrows amid Trump's warning
The betting activity was unusual as traders had earlier estimated the chances of a ceasefire at under 35%. On the same day, Trump had issued an ominous warning online that "a whole civilization will die tonight" if Iran didn't comply with US demands over the Strait of Hormuz. Despite this, several new accounts placed large bets on Polymarket.
Profitable wagers
Profits for multiple wallets
One wallet, created on the morning of April 7, placed around $72,000 in low-priced bets and exited with an estimated $200,000 profit. Another account opened a day earlier made over $125,000 in profits. A third wallet created just minutes before Trump's announcement placed nearly $32,000 in bets and is estimated to have earned almost $48,500.
Disputed outcome
Payouts still pending for some traders
Despite some traders already pocketing their profits, others are still waiting for payouts as Polymarket has marked the April 7 ceasefire contract as "disputed." This is due to ongoing tensions in the region, including restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and continued missile activity. The dispute resolution process could take up to 48 hours.
Insider trading
Similar patterns observed in past geopolitical events
The incident has once again put the spotlight on previous cases where new accounts placed large bets on geopolitical events. Blockchain tracking groups such as Lookonchain and Bubblemaps have highlighted instances where new accounts made significant profits by betting on similar events. A study by Columbia Law School and University of Haifa found trading patterns consistent with non-public information, estimating profits of around $143 million over two years.