China, Russia's air power a threat to the West: Report
What's the story
A report by the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) has noted that both China and Russia have drastically improved their air power since 2020. The report highlights that China's production of fifth-generation J-20 fighter jets has tripled, while Russia has more combat-hardened pilots. The developments come as the United States remains the most powerful military in the world, although its influence in Europe and Indo-Pacific regions has waned under President Donald Trump's administration.
Resilient force
Russia's air power remains formidable
Despite suffering losses in Ukraine, the Russian air force (VKS) is now a "significantly more capable threat" for Western militaries. The report states that while Russia lost around 130 fixed-wing aircraft during the conflict, it added at least 150 new ones to its fleet. Most of these losses were Sukhoi Su-25SMs and Su-24 million/MR Fencers, which have little impact on NATO forces' threats.
Experienced crew
Russian pilots gain combat experience despite aircraft losses
The report also noted that Russia has lost fewer pilots than planes, with many aircraft losses occurring on the ground due to Ukrainian drone and missile strikes. This means aircrew casualties were likely minimal. The experience gained by Russian pilots and aircrew started with their involvement in Syria but intensified after the invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Rising power
China emerges as dominant force in Indo-Pacific
On the other hand, China has emerged as a dominant force in the fifth-generation aerial-warfare battlespace of the Indo-Pacific region. The country has increased its annual production of J-20 fighters from around 20 per year in 2020 to 120 by 2025. This indicates that by 2030, China could have around 1,000 J-20s and 900 J-16s operational.
Technological advancement
China challenges US in electronic warfare
China has also challenged the United States in electronic warfare with its land-based J-16D and naval J-15DT/DH airborne electronic-warfare aircraft. These are equipped with internal sensors, wiring, and mission-specific cockpits. Further, China is moving toward stealth and sixth-generation fighter planes such as the J-36 and J-50, which have advanced stealth characteristics.
Strategic shift
Traditional Western airpower edge no longer guaranteed
The report concludes that while Western militaries may still win against China in the Indo-Pacific, such victories are no longer guaranteed. It says, "Current Chinese capability growth is sufficiently impressive and rapid that the traditional Western airpower edge is no longer guaranteed in the Indo-Pacific." US-led forces could still win localized conflicts with greater operational experience and high-end training programs.