World likely to cross 1.5°C global warming limit by 2028
What's the story
Humans are set to emit so much greenhouse gas by early 2028 that limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius will become increasingly unlikely, according to a new study. The report warns that by then, accumulated carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will give the world a 50-50 or greater chance of long-term warming above the threshold. This projection, driven by continued use of fossil fuels, marks an acceleration from similar estimates made by the same group of scientists last year.
Acceleration noted
Target and its significance
The study's co-author, Zeke Hausfather, emphasized the alarming acceleration of climate change. He said, "Things aren't just getting worse. They're getting worse faster." The 1.5 degrees Celsius target was first established in the 2015 Paris Agreement and is central to global efforts to combat climate change. Crossing this limit could lead to more severe heat waves, droughts, storms, and sea-level rise, threatening small island nations.
Warming increase
Earth's energy imbalance is now 25% higher
The study found that only 143 billion more tons of carbon dioxide can be emitted before crossing the 1.5 degrees Celsius limit becomes inevitable. With current emissions at 46 billion tons a year, this threshold could be reached by February 2028. The Earth's energy imbalance, a key climate change indicator, is now 25% higher than it was a decade ago. This imbalance shows Earth is absorbing more heat than it releases into space and is accelerating rapidly.
Impacts observed
Hard to avoid the threshold
The report's lead author, Piers Forster, noted that records are being broken everywhere due to climate change. He said he can't conceive of avoiding crossing the 1.5 degrees Celsius limit. Although the planet temporarily crossed this threshold last year, it is meant to be measured over a longer period. Crossing this limit could lead to extreme climate events.
Threshold significance
Crossing the threshold could lead to unacceptable impacts on societies
Study co-author Joeri Rogelj stressed the political importance of the 1.5 degrees Celsius limit, saying its crossing could lead to unacceptable impacts on societies. University of Michigan environment school dean Jonathan Overpeck said crossing this threshold would mean more frequent and severe climate extremes. Texas A&M University climate scientist Andrew Dessler agreed that while missing this goal isn't catastrophic, each additional degree of warming will bring worse impacts.