Apple's India iPhone shipments set to fall for first time
What's the story
Apple is likely to witness its first-ever annual decline in iPhone shipments in India, after years of uninterrupted growth. The forecast comes from market researchers who cite supply shortages and fading affordability as the main culprits behind this trend. This prediction follows Apple's first quarterly shipment decline in nearly four years during the April-June period.
Market challenges
Supply shortages and affordability issues
Despite continued consumer interest, Apple's growth in India is slowing down.
This is mainly due to supply shortages of key iPhone models and reduced financing and exchange offers.
These factors have increased the effective cost of owning an iPhone, making it less affordable for consumers.
Analysts believe these challenges could affect shipments through 2026, even as India remains one of Apple's fastest-growing revenue markets.
Pricing impact
Apple maintains pricing strategy
Apple has kept the list prices of its existing iPhone lineup unchanged, unlike Android brands that have raised prices due to rising component costs.
However, fewer financing schemes and lower exchange discounts have effectively increased purchase prices for consumers.
IDC India's Research Manager Upasana Joshi said, "Apple is still the only brand that hasn't raised prices on its older lineup but with affordability offers now limited."
Shipment forecast
IDC India's Q2 shipment estimates
IDC India estimates that total smartphone shipments were down 11-12% year-on-year in Q2 2026 to around 32-34 million units.
iPhone shipments were flat to down 1% year-on-year, a slight improvement from the 5% decline in Q1.
Joshi clarified that "softer shipment numbers are being driven by supply, not weaker consumer appetite," indicating strong demand for iPhones despite supply challenges.
Market analysis
Counterpoint Research's take on Apple's quarterly shipment decline
Counterpoint Research estimates a 3% year-on-year decline in Apple's India shipments for the April-June quarter, marking its first quarterly shipment decline in nearly four years.
Senior Research Analyst Prachir Singh attributed this mainly to disciplined channel inventory management rather than weakening consumer demand.
He said, "Instead of pushing additional devices into the channel, Apple prioritized healthier inventory levels."
Festive season
Retailers report constrained supplies of base iPhone 17
Retailers in major cities have reported that supplies of the base iPhone 17 remain constrained despite healthy demand.
They also expect Apple's traditional festive price cuts on older models may not happen this year.
Typically, Apple reduces the price of outgoing iPhones by around ₹10,000 after launching a new lineup. However, with a significantly different iPhone 18 lineup expected this year, retailers don't expect the usual discounts.