Global air passenger demand growth to slow down in 2026
What's the story
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has predicted a slowdown in global air passenger demand growth for 2026. The industry-wide revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) is expected to rise by only 2.1% year-on-year (YoY). This deceleration is largely attributed to the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and an energy crisis that have significantly increased fuel costs.
Economic impact
Impact of fuel costs on air travel
IATA has warned that the steep rise in oil prices and even sharper increase in fuel costs are hurting both the aviation industry and the global economy. The association predicts that global GDP growth could be reduced by half a percentage point to around 2.5% in 2026, while inflation may rise to 5%. This combination would reduce households' purchasing power, making air travel less affordable for many.
Regional forecast
Regional disparities in air travel growth
The IATA report also highlights regional disparities in air travel growth. The Middle East is expected to see a sharp contraction of 11.4% in RPK for 2026, due to airspace restrictions and operational challenges. Africa, on the other hand, is projected to witness the strongest traffic growth at an impressive 10%, albeit from a low base compared to other regions.
Traffic trends
Regional traffic projections for 2026
Asia-Pacific is expected to contribute the most to global traffic growth with a 5.1% increase. Europe is likely to see a modest 2.8% rise in passenger traffic, partly due to rerouted flights from disrupted long-haul corridors in the Middle East. Latin America's traffic is projected to grow by 5%, thanks to resilient regional economies, while North America's growth looks set at just 0.8%.