Mint poll forecasts India retail inflation 3.4% by March 2026
India's retail inflation is expected to tick up to 3.4% by March 2026, according to a Mint poll of economists.
That's a slight increase from the current 3.2%, mainly because fuel prices are climbing and the base effect isn't helping as much anymore.
On the bright side, this rate is still below the RBI's 4% target.
Also, keep an eye out: inflation stats will now use 2024 as their new base year instead of 2012.
India's nonfood and energy costs rising
Most of the pressure is coming from nonfood and energy costs, think higher fuel and gas bills.
The recent conflict in West Asia (which kicked off in late February) has pushed crude oil prices up, making things like LPG and aviation fuel pricier here at home.
Even with a U.S.-Iran ceasefire on April 8, experts say Indian fuel prices could stay high if global oil markets remain tense.