OPEC+ unlikely to make any changes to oil production
What's the story
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, known as OPEC+, are likely to keep their oil production steady at an upcoming meeting today. This comes in spite of political tensions between major members Saudi Arabia and the UAE, as well as the US's recent actions against Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.
Market conditions
OPEC+ meeting amid falling oil prices
Today's meeting will be attended by eight OPEC+ members, Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria, and Oman. Together they account for nearly half of the world's oil production. This comes after a major decline in oil prices in 2025, over 18%, the biggest annual drop since 2020. The decline has been attributed to fears of an oversupply in the market.
Production increase
OPEC+ members raised oil output targets
Despite the market conditions, OPEC+ members had previously agreed to raise their oil output targets by some 2.9 million barrels per day from April to December 2025. This is nearly 3% of global oil demand. They also decided to pause these production hikes for January, February, and March this year. The upcoming meeting is unlikely to change this policy.
Regional conflict
Tensions between Saudi Arabia and UAE
The political tensions between Saudi Arabia and the UAE escalated last month over a long-standing Yemen conflict. A group aligned with the UAE seized territory from a Saudi-backed government, causing major rifts between the two former allies. Despite these internal divisions, OPEC has historically prioritized market management over political disputes to maintain stability within its ranks.
Venezuelan crisis
US captures Venezuelan president
In a major development, the United States has captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. US President Donald Trump announced that Washington would take control of Venezuela until a transition to a new administration is possible. Despite having the world's largest oil reserves, Venezuela's production has plunged due to years of mismanagement and sanctions. Analysts doubt any significant jump in crude output for years even if US oil majors invest heavily in the country as promised by Trump.