IIT-KGP develops model to predict variability and trends in rainfall
Researchers at IIT Kharagpur have developed a new statistical model which can be used to predict variability and trends in rainfall over different climate regions of India. The model, developed by researchers of the Center for Oceans, Rivers, Atmosphere and Land Sciences (CORAL), takes into consideration both local and remote factors causing weather changes, an IIT-KGP statement said today. Here's more.
Many of these local and remote factors that affect weather conditions have been known to the scientific community, the statement said, adding, most weather forecast models typically consider local factors that affect rainfall. Because of this, there used to be significant uncertainties in such predictions as each independent factor has a certain impact, which may not match with actual conditions, it said.
"Our study finds that the summer monsoon rainfall variability is governed by the surface temperatures of the Eastern Pacific, Central Pacific, Atlantic, and the north Indian Oceans, and equatorial zonal winds," the statement said quoting Prof Jayanarayanan Kuttippurath. However, the winter monsoon rainfall variability is largely controlled by the surface temperature of the North Atlantic and extratropical oceans, Kuttippurath said.
"In our model, we've used a technique which removes the impact of individual factors to find the trends in rainfall. The model can be used to find the contribution of individual factors to rainfall and can be applied to estimate the trends and variability of rainfall," Dr. Prijitha J Nair said. Nair is the lead researcher who conceived and coordinated this study.
The model can predict any type of weather conditions in the world by changing the relevant factors affecting the changes. It has been developed using data over a period of 38 years and has predicted significant changes in Indian rainfall from the perspective of global climate change. The data analysis conducted revealed significant positive trends (0.43mm/day/dec) in the north-west for summer rainfall during 1979-2017.
"There are scientific evidences of major climate shifts over centuries. These do not happen overnight but through gradual changes in weather conditions over time," Professor Arun Chakraborty, who supervised the research, was quoted as saying in the statement. "The data shows there has been an incremental shift of Indian monsoon from east to west. However, this would require further studies," Chakraborty said.
