Southwest monsoon to finally hit Kerala around June 4: IMD
What's the story
The southwest monsoon is expected to hit Kerala on June 4, 2026, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said. Previously, the IMD predicted that the monsoon would arrive in Kerala around May 26. However, changes in weather patterns slowed the formation of atmospheric components required for an official onset declaration. From Kerala, the monsoon advances northwards, covering the entire country around July 15.
Weather impact
Last year's early monsoon
"Conditions are favorable for further advance of southwest monsoon into some more parts of southwest & southeast Arabian Sea, Lakshadweep Islands, some parts of Keralam & Tamil Nadu, some more parts of southwest, westcentral, eastcentral & northeast Bay of Bengal, and remaining parts of southeast Bay of Bengal around 4th June," the Met Department said on Tuesday. Last year, the monsoon arrived early in Kerala on May 24, marking its earliest arrival since 2009.
Climate influence
El Nino conditions
The IMD has said one reason behind the below-normal rainfall this year could be the emergence of El Nino conditions, which typically bring less rain during India's monsoon season. Currently, neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation conditions are shifting toward El Nino conditions over the equatorial Pacific region. These conditions are expected to be weak in June but moderate to strong by September.
Rain forecast
Heavy rainfall expected in southern states
The IMD has predicted widespread rainfall activity across southern states over the next week, with Kerala likely to receive heavy to very heavy rainfall. Isolated locations in the state could see 7cm-20cm of rain over the next six-seven days. The weather agency has also predicted isolated heavy rainfall in parts of Tamil Nadu and Karnataka as monsoon winds strengthen over the Arabian Sea.
Weather warnings
Thunderstorm warning
The IMD has warned of moderate to severe thunderstorms over northwest, central, eastern India and south Peninsular India in the coming week. These thunderstorms could bring squally winds of 40-50km/h, posing risks to outdoor activities and agriculture. However, this season, the IMD has predicted an increased number of heatwave days and below-normal rainfall with a forecast of only 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA), down from an earlier prediction of 92%.