IMD forecasts 'above-normal' monsoon rainfall in June
What's the story
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has revised its monsoon forecast, predicting above-normal rainfall for most of India.
The updated forecast predicts 106% of the long period average (LPA) for the June-September season, up from April's prediction of 105%.
The error margin has also been tightened to ±4% from the earlier ±5% that was allowed for in April.
Monsoon update
Early monsoon onset and rapid progress across India
The southwest monsoon made its onset over Kerala on May 24, eight days ahead of schedule. Since then, it has progressed rapidly across the country.
This early onset and rapid progress are expected to continue for some time, although a slowdown is anticipated due to mid-latitude dry air intrusions.
"A low-pressure area has developed over Bay of Bengal, which will also help monsoon progress, but after 3-4 days, monsoon progress may slow down," said M Mohapatra, director general of IMD.
Rainfall forecast
Above-normal rainfall expected in June
For June, the IMD predicts above-normal rainfall of 108% of LPA across India.
Most parts are expected to receive normal to above-normal rainfall, except some southern peninsular regions and parts of northwest and northeast India.
The monsoon core zone is likely to see above-normal rainfall, which is crucial for the agriculture sector.
Weather anomalies
Unusual weather patterns and their impact
The early monsoon progress is coinciding with the persistence of western disturbances over northwest India.
"Yes, WDs are persisting till summer this year. Monsoon has not progressed to NW India yet, and hence we cannot say whether it will interact with these WDs," Mohapatra explained.
The IMD has issued red alerts for Kerala and Karnataka due to intensified monsoon activity, indicating a need for preparedness against potential flooding and related disruptions.
Economic implications
Monsoon's impact on agriculture and economy
The monsoon is crucial for India's agriculture-dependent economy, with 51% of farmed areas relying on rainfall and 47% of the population dependent on agriculture for livelihood.
The IMD's forecast suggests a strong farm output, which could boost agricultural productivity and rural incomes.
Officials advised farmers to "follow agro-met advisories to suitably time harvest" as weather patterns evolve during the season.