IMD revises monsoon forecast down to 90%, deepening concerns
What's the story
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted below-normal monsoon rainfall for 2026. The IMD's latest forecast estimates monsoon rainfall at 90% of the long-term average, a drop from its April prediction of 92%. This could have serious implications for India's rain-fed agriculture and rural economy. The weather department also warned that an El Niño weather pattern is likely to develop during June and July, further complicating the situation.
Weather forecast
El Nino expected to develop in June
The IMD has predicted weak El Niño conditions in June, with a possibility of weak-to-moderate conditions in July and August. By September, it expects the phenomenon to intensify into a moderate-to-strong phase. The monsoon core zone, which includes most rain-fed agricultural regions across central and northwest India, is likely to receive below-normal rainfall of less than 94% of the long-period average (LPA).
Rainfall distribution
Northeast India to receive normal rainfall
According to the IMD's forecast, northwest India is likely to receive rainfall below 92% of the LPA. Central India and the southern peninsula are also expected to see below-normal rains. Only northeast India is expected to receive normal rainfall, in the range of 94-106% of the LPA. The forecast indicates that most parts of the country will witness below-normal rainfall during the June-September monsoon season.
Economic impact
Concerns over food inflation, agricultural output
The IMD's forecast raises concerns over agricultural production and food inflation in India. The country's farm sector is heavily dependent on seasonal rains as a large part of cultivated land still lacks irrigation coverage. A below-normal monsoon could put pressure on agricultural output and may lead to higher food prices later in the year.