India on track to witness third-driest June in century
What's the story
India is on track to witness its third-driest June in a century, with the southwest monsoon being unusually weak across most regions of the country. As of now, there is a nationwide rainfall deficit of 42%. The India Meteorological Department(IMD) has said that this could be due to the developing El Niño weather pattern, indicating that the developing El Niño weather pattern may already be affecting this year's monsoon.
Data analysis
Third driest June in a century
So far, India has recorded only 92.2mm of rainfall in June, a stark contrast to the normal average of 157.7mm for this month. Even if widespread rains are recorded on Tuesday, the last day of June, total rainfall is expected to be around 100mm. Historical data shows that only two years in the past century had lower June rainfall: 2009 with 87.5mm and 2014 with 92.1mm.
Regional impact
Rainfall deficits across major regions
Central India has seen the biggest rainfall deficit this month, at 54%. East and Northeast India follow with a deficit of 41%, while Northwest and South India have deficits of 30% and 28%, respectively. Meteorologists say it's rare for all four major regions to have such large deficits simultaneously, hinting that El Niño might be affecting India's monsoon.
Climate phenomenon
El Niño nearing moderate intensity
The US-based International Research Institute for Climate and Society has reported that El Niño has rapidly strengthened and is nearing moderate intensity due to warming sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Forecasts suggest that it will likely intensify in the coming months. El Niño is known to disrupt global weather patterns, including weakening India's southwest monsoon.
Weather forecast
IMD predicts improvement in rainfall in July 1st week
Despite the poor performance of the monsoon in June, the IMD has predicted an improvement in rainfall during the first week of July. The weather department expects widespread and well-distributed rains across most parts of India, especially Central India, which has seen the largest deficit this month. This comes after a weak onset over Kerala on June 4 and only one day of above-normal daily rainfall across India during June so far.