Monsoon reaches Kerala, earliest onset over Indian mainland since 2009
What's the story
The southwest monsoon has made an early arrival in India this year, reaching Kerala on Saturday.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) noted that this is the earliest onset since 2009 when it first hit the state on May 23.
Typically, the southwest monsoon arrives in Kerala by June 1 and covers the entire country by July 8.
Weather impact
Monsoon's early arrival brings heavy rainfall to Kerala
Kerala has already witnessed a significant increase in rainfall in the past week due to the monsoon's early arrival.
The IMD announces the monsoon's onset based on three criteria: at least 2.5mm of rain at 14 or more meteorological stations for two consecutive days, deep westerly winds up to 600 hectopascals, and a decrease in Outgoing Longwave Radiation below 200W per square meter.
Rainfall forecast
IMD forecasts above-normal rainfall for 2025 monsoon season
The IMD has predicted above-normal cumulative rainfall for the 2025 monsoon season, estimating total precipitation to be around 105% of the Long Period Average (LPA) of 870mm.
This prediction comes as two major oceanic phenomena, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole, are currently neutral, which is expected to aid monsoonal activity.
Weather alert
IMD issues heavy rainfall warning for Kerala and coastal Karnataka
The IMD has also issued a warning of extremely heavy rainfall, over 205mm in 24 hours, for Kerala and Mahe till Monday.
Similar weather conditions are expected in coastal Karnataka.
Adding to the turbulent weather, a well-marked low-pressure area off the Konkan-Goa coast intensified into a depression on Saturday, likely making landfall near Raigad in Maharashtra by evening.
Economic significance
Monsoon's early arrival critical for India's economy and agriculture
The southwest monsoon is a crucial weather event for India, impacting agriculture, water resources, and economic stability.
The IMD data shows that the monsoon has arrived early over Kerala in several recent years: May 24 in 2025, May 30 in 2024, June 8 in 2023, and so on.
The earliest recorded onset was on May 19 in 1990.