JD(U)'s tally set to shatter Prashant Kishor's prediction
What's the story
Election strategist-turned-politician Prashant Kishor's prediction about the Janata Dal (United) or JD(U) in the Bihar Assembly polls seems to be way off. The Nitish Kumar-led party is currently leading on 84 seats, far more than Kishor's forecast of a maximum of 25 seats. The National Democratic Alliance (NDA), which includes the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), is also comfortably past the majority mark of 122 in the 243-member House, leading in 204 seats.
Political shift
Kishor's bold promise and changing political landscape
Kishor had earlier promised to quit politics if the JD(U) won more than 25 seats. He had said, "After the results, if JD(U) wins more than 25 seats, please come and tell me. Even if Jan Suraaj wins, inform me; I will quit politics." However, his prediction seems to have missed the mark by a huge margin as the political landscape has changed since then.
Election outcome
JD(U)'s performance defies Kishor's earlier predictions
Kishor had also predicted that the JD(U) would be reduced to six seats in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, but they won 12 seats. The NDA is well above the majority mark with JD(U) leading on 84 seats and BJP on 92. Other NDA allies include Lok Jansakti Party (Ram Vilas), Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular), and Rashtriya Lok Morcha.
Poll projections
Exit polls favor NDA, but Nitish Kumar's popularity questioned
Exit polls had also favored the NDA's return to power in Bihar, with projections of 121-209 seats for the BJP-JDU-led NDA. The Mahagathbandhan was projected to be a distant second with 32-118 seats. However, despite these favorable projections for his party, Kishor's earlier statements about CM Nitish Kumar being "on his way out" remain unverified as results are still awaited.