El Nino intensifying rapidly, could break records: UN agency
What's the story
The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has warned that the El Nino weather phenomenon is rapidly intensifying across the tropical Pacific Ocean. The agency predicts that this year's event could be one of the strongest on record, with a nearly 100% chance of continuing through February 2027. Its effects may persist long after its peak, potentially leading to extreme heat, floods, droughts, and disruptions in monsoon patterns.
Climate models
El Nino likely to break previous records
A majority of climate models indicate that the 2026 El Nino could be the strongest in modern history.
An analysis by Carbon Brief of 14 modeling groups found that 96% of forecast runs point to a record-strength event.
The predicted Nino 3.4 sea-surface temperature anomaly could surpass the previous record of around 2.75°C set during the 2015-16 El Nino event.
Temperature rise
El Nino's global temperature impact
El Nino events occur when Pacific trade winds weaken, causing warm surface water to shift eastward.
This suppresses the upwelling of colder deep water, releasing more heat into the atmosphere and potentially further strengthening El Nino.
The phenomenon temporarily raises global temperatures by transferring heat from the Pacific Ocean into the atmosphere.
This could contribute to exceptionally high global temperatures in 2027, though a new annual temperature record is not yet certain.
Regional impact
Potential effects on Indian monsoon and Atlantic hurricanes
In India, strong El Nino events can increase heat risks and raise the possibility of weaker monsoon rainfall later in the year.
The phenomenon can also increase Atlantic wind shear, which tends to suppress hurricane activity there.
However, it may make tropical cyclone patterns more active across parts of the Pacific Ocean.