'Super El Nino' could cost global economy $451 billion: Report
What's the story
A report by Allianz Research has estimated that the "Super El Nino" phenomenon could lead to an estimated loss of $451 billion from the global economy in 2027. The study highlights that India, the United States, and China together will account for nearly 60% of these losses. The report was released amid the ongoing development of a record El Nino event over the Pacific Ocean, which is expected to strengthen through 2026 and continue into early 2027.
Economic impact
Major losses expected in China, the United States, and India
The Allianz Climate Economics Report 2026 estimates that China could suffer a gross output loss of $147 billion due to the El Nino event.
The United States and India are projected to lose $91 billion and $50 billion, respectively.
Together, the three economies account for almost 60% of the gross losses.
Economic disruption
Global economic impact and methodology
The study estimates that the total global loss could amount to 0.24% of projected gross domestic product (GDP) across 144 economies.
The Allianz estimates are based on how countries' economies reacted to temperature changes during the 2023-24 El Nino episode.
The $451 billion figure only considers economic output impacts due to temperature changes and does not account for additional losses from extreme weather events like floods, droughts, or wildfires.
Inflation impact
Rising climate costs and inflationary pressures
The report also estimates that the El Nino event could increase global headline inflation by an average of 0.42% points and food inflation by 0.65% points.
These estimates come amid rising climate costs, with extreme weather events causing $210 billion in economic losses globally in 2025 alone.
Although this figure was 32% lower than the $307 billion recorded in 2024, it remained 20% above the 2000-2019 average.