Scientists warn El Nino could hit India later in 2026
What's the story
Climate scientists have been closely monitoring the Pacific Ocean for signs of El Nino, a major climate event. Despite expectations of its early emergence in 2026, the phenomenon has not yet officially arrived. This delay has raised concerns among meteorologists worldwide as they fear it could lead to more severe weather patterns later this year.
Temperature rise
Neutral ENSO phase
Global climate models indicate that the Pacific Ocean is currently in a neutral ENSO phase. However, deep ocean temperatures are rapidly rising beneath the surface. This hidden warming could trigger El Nino later this summer, according to scientists. The delay isn't the main concern; it's what could happen next that has meteorologists worried about potential global impacts on temperature, rainfall patterns, and extreme weather events across continents.
Forecast predictions
Climate models predict El Nino formation between May and July
Several climate models now predict a 60-70% chance of El Nino developing between May and July 2026. Some projections even hint at a strong event by year's end. Scientists warn that delayed El Nino formations can sometimes intensify quickly once atmospheric conditions align, further fueling debate among meteorologists about this potential rapid shift and its global implications.
Heat accumulation
Ocean appears to be 'loading energy'
Satellite and ocean-monitoring data show warmer-than-normal water accumulating beneath the equatorial Pacific. This subsurface heat usually fuels El Nino. While surface temperatures have yet to cross the official threshold, scientists say the ocean appears to be "loading energy." Some experts think this delayed response could be due to the recent La Nina phase weakening earlier this year.
Weather implications
India may experience extreme weather conditions
El Nino years often bring weaker monsoons, prolonged heatwaves, and increased drought risks in India. A stronger event in late 2026 could also affect food prices, water availability, and global crop production. However, meteorologists warn that El Nino doesn't always guarantee drought conditions in India as its impact largely depends on the strength of the event and how it interacts with the Indian Ocean.
Worldwide effects
Potential global impacts of delayed El Nino
Countries in Asia, Africa, and South America are particularly vulnerable to rainfall disruptions linked to Pacific warming. Meanwhile, parts of Europe and North America could see unusual winter patterns if the phenomenon strengthens further. Some researchers think this Pacific warming could fade before reaching full El Nino conditions while others believe climate change is altering traditional ocean behavior, making delayed but sharper events more likely.