80% chance of El Nino forming before September, UN warns
What's the story
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that the world should prepare for the imminent return of El Nino, a powerful natural weather pattern. The phenomenon is likely to raise global temperatures and intensify rainfall in some regions. The WMO predicts an 80% chance of El Nino forming before September and a 90% chance of persisting until November.
Climate warning
Last El Nino event was one of the strongest
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres stressed the need to treat El Nino as an urgent climate warning. He said, "El Nino conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world," adding that its impacts would be more severe and widespread. The last El Nino event in 2023-24 was one of the five strongest on record and contributed to record-breaking global temperatures in 2024.
Weather effects
Forecast of extreme rainfall, drought
The WMO has forecast above-normal temperatures for most of the world in the coming months, with an increased likelihood of extreme rainfall and drought. While each El Nino event is unique, they are usually associated with heavier rain in parts of South America, the southern US, Horn of Africa and central Asia. Drier conditions typically affect Central America, northern South America, Caribbean islands, Australia, Indonesia, and parts of south Asia.
Hurricane effects
Hurricanes in Pacific Ocean
The warm waters associated with El Nino can also fuel hurricanes in the central/eastern Pacific Ocean but hinder their formation in the Atlantic basin. The WMO said sea surface temperatures in parts of the Pacific that scientists use as a reference were approaching El Nino thresholds from late April to mid-May, fed by unusually warm subsurface conditions.