Iran retains 70% missiles, can outlast blockade for months: CIA
What's the story
The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) has reportedly assessed that Iran can endure the American blockade for three to four months. The assessment contradicts President Donald Trump's claims of an imminent end to the conflict with Iran. According to the CIA's classified report, Iran still possesses around 70% of its missiles and 75% of its mobile launchers. This is in stark contrast to Trump's assertion that only 18-19% of their missile capacity remains.
Misjudged strength
Iran reopening underground storage facilities
The CIA's assessment also highlights that Iran has managed to restore and reopen nearly all its underground storage facilities. They have repaired some missiles and are assembling new ones that were close to completion before the war started. A second official told The Washington Post that Iran's ability to endure economic hardship is far greater than the CIA estimates, contradicting Trump's blockade strategy.
Strategy impact
Iran's leadership more radical, determined
Trump's blockade strategy aimed at cutting off Iranian exports, especially oil and gas, to cripple their economy. However, the CIA's assessment indicates that this approach may have backfired. Iran's leadership has become "more radical, determined and increasingly confident they can outlast US political will and sustain domestic repression to check any resistance," a second official told The Post.
Export diversification
Iran looking at overland export routes
Despite the naval blockade, Iran is looking at overland export routes for some of its oil and gas. There are indications that Iran might start exporting some oil by rail through Central Asia. However, these overland exports will not be able to match the volumes transported through sea lanes. Whether this strategy will force Tehran to accept Trump's terms remains uncertain.