Saudi pressing Trump to drop blockade of Iranian ports: WSJ
What's the story
Saudi Arabia is reportedly urging the United States to reconsider its decision to blockade Iranian ports, a move that could further escalate tensions in the region. Arab officials told the publication that Saudi fears closing Iranian ports could lead Tehran to escalate and disrupt other important shipping routes. Riyadh is pressing the Donald Trump administration to return to the negotiating table, the report said.
Economic impact
Tehran may shut Bab al-Mandeb
The US decision to blockade all Iranian shipments is aimed at pressuring Iran's already crippled economy. However, Saudi Arabia has warned that Tehran might retaliate by closing the Bab al-Mandeb, a key Red Sea chokepoint for the kingdom's remaining oil exports. Over six weeks of warfare, Tehran has shown both the ability and willingness to shut down critical waterways and strike vital infrastructure across the region.
Export recovery
Saudi oil exports restored to prewar levels
To date, Saudi Arabia has managed to restore its oil exports to pre-war levels of around seven million barrels a day even amid the disruptions. This was done by piping crude across the desert to the Red Sea while Hormuz remained blocked. However, Riyadh is still worried these supplies could be at risk if exit routes through the Red Sea are also closed.
Strategic control
Houthis may disrupt Bab al-Mandeb
The long stretch of coastline near Bab al-Mandeb is controlled by Iran's Houthi allies in Yemen. These Houthis have disrupted the waterway for much of the war in Gaza, and now Iran is pressuring them to close it again. Adam Baron, a Yemen expert at New America, told WSJ that if Iran wants to shut down Bab al-Mandeb, Houthis are the obvious partner to do it, and their response to the Gaza conflict demonstrates they have the capacity for it.
Toll
Houthis could also begin imposing transit fees
Saudi officials said the Houthis could also begin imposing transit fees on ships in the waterway. "That would then be a way for Iran to escalate back, saying that if you're going to restrict our oil exports, we will then disrupt your Yanbu terminal exports," said Erik Meyersson, chief emerging markets strategist at Swedish bank SEB, to WSJ.
Security threat
Iran threatens neighbors' maritime security
Iran has already threatened its neighbors' maritime security if the US blocks its shipping routes. The Iranian armed forces warned that "if the security of Iran's ports in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman is threatened, no port in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman will be safe." Earlier this month, Iran's supreme leader's foreign policy adviser, Ali Akbar Velayati, also said that Iran views Bab al-Mandeb "just as it looks at Hormuz."