Think tank warns of potential India-Pakistan conflict in 2026
What's the story
A report by the United States-based Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) has warned of a "moderate likelihood" of armed conflict between India and Pakistan in 2026. The prediction is based on heightened terrorist activity in Kashmir. The CFR report, titled "Conflicts to Watch in 2026," assessed American foreign policy experts and concluded that such a conflict could have a "moderate impact" on American interests.
Escalating tensions
Recent India-Pakistan tensions and defense expansions
The CFR report comes in the wake of recent escalations between India and Pakistan. In May, both countries were involved in a four-day conflict involving drone and missile strikes. This was after India's Operation Sindoor targeted terror infrastructure in Pakistan and Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir (POK) following a terrorist attack in Pahalgam that killed 26 civilians. Despite a ceasefire, both nations continue to strengthen their military capabilities.
Defense talks
Pakistan's defense negotiations and Afghanistan conflict
Pakistan is reportedly in talks with Turkey and China for new drones and air defense systems, while India's Defence Acquisition Council recently cleared purchases worth ₹79,000 crore to acquire drones, air-to-air missiles, and guided bombs. The CFR report also highlights another potential flashpoint: a "moderate likelihood" of armed conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan in 2026 due to cross-border militant attacks. In October, violence erupted along the Durand Line between Pakistani and Afghan forces, marking a major escalation in tensions.
Economic fallout
Diplomatic fallout and economic impact of Afghanistan-Pakistan conflict
The conflict along the Durand Line has strained diplomatic relations and severely impacted bilateral trade, especially hurting Pakistan. Afghanistan's Taliban regime is now seeking trade ties with other countries like India, Iran, and Turkey. The CFR report serves as a guide for American policymakers to understand potential global conflict hotspots and their implications on US interests.
Categories
Renewed armed conflict due to heightened terrorist activity
The survey results have been categorized and the contingencies were then assigned to one of three preventative priority tiers (I, II, and III). The India-Pakistan conflict has been classified as Tier II, with a 'moderate likelihood, moderate impact.' "The renewed armed conflict between India and Pakistan due to heightened terrorist activity," reads the text.