White House staff warned against place bets on prediction markets
What's the story
The White House issued a warning last month to its staff against using nonpublic information for betting on prediction markets. The advisory was sent via an email from the White House Management Office on March 24, CBS News reported. The email stated, "Recent press reports have raised concerns about government officials using nonpublic government information to place wagers on online prediction markets such as Kalshi or Polymarket."
Warning
'Criminal offense to use nonpublic information'
The email said that it's a "criminal offense for anyone to use nonpublic information to buy or sell these contracts," and that "government ethics regulations prohibit the use of nonpublic government information for the private benefit of an employee or any other third party." "All White House employees are reminded that the misuse of nonpublic information by government employees for financial benefit is a very serious offense and will not be tolerated," the email added.
Trading spike
Unusual trading activity before Iran ceasefire announcement
The warning came after over $760 million in oil futures contracts were traded just minutes before President Donald Trump announced a temporary halt to strikes on Iran. This was first reported by The Wall Street Journal, citing Dow Jones Market Data. Separately, three accounts on Polymarket made more than $600,000 betting on the timing of an Iran ceasefire.
Official response
White House dismisses allegations of wrongdoing
White House spokesperson David Ingle confirmed the authenticity of the email and said that "the only special interest that will ever guide President Trump is the best interest of the American people." "President Trump has been crystal clear: while he seeks a strong and profitable stock market for everyone...government officials should be prohibited from using nonpublic information for financial benefit." He also dismissed any implication that administration officials were engaged in such activity without evidence as "baseless and irresponsible reporting."
Legislative response
Prediction markets raise ethical concerns and political backlash
The issue has sparked a political debate, with Senator Richard Blumenthal warning that prediction markets "are turning war into a casino game, and creating a market for national security leaks." Along with Senator Andy Kim, he has proposed legislation to ban such betting on military events. Recent incidents have only added to the concerns over these platforms. In one instance, a trader made over $400,000 betting on Nicolas Maduro's downfall shortly before his capture.