ADB warns oil prices could cut India GDP growth 0.6%
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) warns that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East is set to keep oil prices high, which could trim India's GDP growth by 0.6% in the current fiscal year (FY27, April 2026-March 2027).
With oil expected to average $96 a barrel in 2026, India, being a big importer, will feel the pinch not just at the pump but across its economy.
ADB projects India inflation at 6.9%
Thanks to expensive oil, ADB expects India's inflation rate to jump from 4.5% to 6.9%.
As Chief Economist Albert Park puts it, "We do find that growth would be lower by 0.6% (FY27)" and "India is more reliant on imported oil and gas."
The situation is made trickier by pricier fertilizers and El Nino could affect crop yields, which could push food prices even higher.
Plus, this crisis isn't just local: ADB has also cut its overall Asia-Pacific growth outlook for 2026 because of these global disruptions.