'Doomsday' report rattles global markets, predicts economic collapse
What's the story
The global economy has had a rollercoaster ride this year, and a new 'doomsday' report is only adding to the turmoil. The study, titled "The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis: A Thought Exercise in Financial History, from the Future," was published by a small research group called Citrini Research. The paper has sent shockwaves across markets from Wall Street to Dalal Street.
Founders
Who are the people behind the report
Citrini Research was founded in 2023 by James van Geelen, a former healthcare company owner who started writing stock research papers after selling his business. The latest report was co-authored by Alap Shah, chief investment officer at Lotus Technology Management. The paper is not a prediction of future events but rather a case study on potential scenarios if the current rollout of artificial intelligence (AI) continues.
Indian impact
Report predicts India will seek IMF bailout
The research paper paints a grim picture for the Indian economy, predicting that New Delhi will begin 'preliminary discussions' with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in early 2028. It claims that AI is disrupting coding jobs and reducing reliance on India's tech sector. Major companies like TCS, Infosys, and Wipro are expected to see an acceleration in contract cancelations through 2027 due to this shift.
Job market
Mass layoffs expected, but new jobs may emerge
The report predicts mass layoffs of unprecedented levels, especially among white-collar workers. However, it also suggests that while most of the service sector will be run by coding tools, humans will still be needed in some capacity. AI is expected to create new jobs with human involvement such as prompt engineers and AI safety researchers. However, these new roles would pay a fraction of what old ones did.
Mitigation strategies
Co-author suggests AI tax to offset disruption
Alap Shah, co-author of the study, suggests that countries should introduce an AI tax to offset disruption. He believes taxing windfall gains from increased use of AI could help create policies and new social frameworks that can absorb this level of disruption. In the near term, Shah expects further market swings as traders assess long-term impacts from AI on software companies and other sectors.